Part I: Key concepts in infectious disease research
An overview of key concepts, introducing some of the challenges in estimating the burden of infectious disease.
March 20, 2025
Peter Kirwan
About
I’m a Research Associate at the MRC Biostatistics Unit in Cambridge. My PhD focussed on applications of multi-state models to estimate infectious disease burden, specifically HIV and COVID-19. My current research involves the development of multi-state "back-calculation" models to estimate HIV incidence and undiagnosed HIV prevalence.
Statistical methods for survival data
This series of blog posts provides an introduction to statistical methods for survival data, with applications for infectious disease modelling and epidemiology. Topics include: classical survival methods, competing risks analysis, and causal inference from observational data.
Part II: Survival analysis
An introduction to survival analysis, time-to-event data, and how we handle censored observations in epidemiological research.
March 27, 2025
Part III: Classical survival methods
Exploring two fundamental approaches to analysing survival data: non-parametric Kaplan-Meier estimation and semi-parametric Cox proportional hazards models.
April 3, 2025
Part IV: Competing Risks in Survival Analysis
How to handle scenarios where multiple possible events can occur, and the challenges this presents for traditional survival methods.
April 10, 2025
Part V: Multi-State Models
Some theory of multi-state models and their applications in epidemiology, including estimating transition intensities and the time spent in a state.
April 17, 2025
Part VI: Statistical inference for multi-state models
Explanation of two statistical inference methods (non-parametric and parametric multi-state survival models) and how these multi-state methods are well-suited to the investigation of intermittently-observed data.
April 24, 2025
Recent publications
2024
2024
📃 Effect of second booster vaccinations and prior infection against SARS-CoV-2 in the UK SIREN healthcare worker cohort. The Lancet Regional Health - Europe.
2022
2022
📃 Trends in COVID-19 hospital outcomes in England before and after vaccine introduction, a cohort study. Nature Communications.
Full list of publications (via Google Scholar).
Recorded talks
2024
🎥 Multi-state modelling to estimate infectious disease burden. University of Cambridge, UK.